Identification of New Positive Tuberculosis Cases in Aceh Besar District Using Ordinary Criging

Abstract

Tuberculosis is a contagious infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The risk level of transmission of pulmonary tuberculosis with positive smear of acid-resistant bacteria (BTA). BTA is greater hight risk than pulmonary tuberculosis with negative smear. This study aims to predict areas of the number of new BTA positive tuberculosis cases in Aceh Besar district spatially using the kriging method. The data used are secondary data coordinate the point of the number of new cases of positive smear tuberculosis in each puskesmas in the province of Aceh in 2015-2017. The experimental semivariogram calculation is the first step in estimating using ordinary kriging, which is a reference for getting the parameters to be used in theoretical semivariogram calculations. In this case, the semivariogram suitable for new cases of smear positive tuberculosis is the one of the Spherical model. The sill value used is 126.530, the nugget=62, while the range used is based on the distance of each class = 0.158. The results of the analysis showed that the regions with the lowest positive BTA Tuberculosis prediction cases were around Pulo Aceh Sub-District, Montasik Sub-District, and Indrapuri Sub-District, with less than 15 cases. Whereas the region with the most positive predictions of new cases of BTA Tuberculosis was around Baitussalam Sub-District and Jantho City, with more than 30 cases.